markov chains

Democratic Primaries, FiveThirtyEight, and Markov Chains

At the moment I am very busy writing things like grant applications and research papers, so I lack the time for blog posts. But then I wasted part of my evening reading this article on FiveThiryEight about the Democratic Party primaries in the US. For each democratic primary contender, they provide the following data:

  • How many of their current supporter do not consider voting for another candidate. For instance for Biden this number is 21.9%, while for Buttigieg it is only 6.2%.
  • Which other candidates their supporter are considering. For instance 52.2% of Biden’s supporter also consider Warren, 39.2% Sanders, 28.9% Harris, and 24.8% Buttigieg.

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